Anthropic has become the most sought-after stock in the private secondary market, with buyers lining up and virtually no sellers willing to part with their shares. That’s the picture emerging from a detailed TechCrunch AI report featuring Glen Anderson, president of investment bank Rainmaker Securities, who’s been brokering private company trades since 2010.
The numbers tell a striking story. Buyers have signaled $2 billion in cash ready to deploy into Anthropic shares. Meanwhile, roughly $600 million worth of OpenAI stock sits on the market without takers. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” Anderson told TechCrunch AI. “There’s just no sellers.”
What’s driving the shift
Anthropically (pun intended), two things changed the game:
- The DOD standoff became a brand event. Anthropic’s public clash with the Department of Defense initially looked like trouble. Instead, it turned into a marketing gift. “People rallied around the company as kind of a hero, taking on big government,” Anderson said. That moment sharpened Anthropic’s identity and separated it from OpenAI in investors’ minds.
- OpenAI’s premium is fading. Secondary market pricing puts OpenAI at roughly $765 billion, a meaningful discount to its $852 billion primary-round valuation. Banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are now offering OpenAI shares to wealthy clients with zero carry fees, something that signals they need to stimulate demand. Goldman, by contrast, charges its standard 15%-20% carry on Anthropic deals. When banks waive fees on one stock but not another, follow the signal.
Anderson pushed back on framing this as a winner-take-all race. Many institutional investors still want exposure to both companies. “The jury’s still out” on which AI model wins long-term, he said. But momentum has clearly shifted.
The SpaceX wildcard
Here’s where it gets interesting for the broader AI private market. SpaceX filed confidentially this week for an IPO that could raise $50-75 billion, potentially in June. The company is valued above $1 trillion, making it one of the largest market debuts in history, second only to Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing.
This matters for Anthropic and OpenAI because SpaceX’s IPO will reshape private market liquidity. Anderson reported a “flood” of buy-side interest in SpaceX shares the moment the filing news broke. Capital that might flow into AI names could get redirected toward a once-in-a-decade IPO opportunity.
What stands out here is the contrast in trajectories. SpaceX never experienced the 60%-70% valuation crash that hit most private companies between 2022 and 2024. Anderson credits disciplined pricing: SpaceX didn’t squeeze every dollar from each funding round, leaving room for consistent upside. Early investors from 2015 are now sitting on 100x returns.
What this means for the AI market
A few practical takeaways:
- Anthropic’s brand strategy is working. Taking public positions on safety and government pushback isn’t just PR. It’s translating directly into investor demand and market differentiation.
- OpenAI’s valuation pressure is real. A secondary market discount of $87 billion from primary pricing suggests sophisticated buyers think the last round was too rich. OpenAI trying to control secondary trading through “authorized channels” confirms they see this as a problem.
- IPO timing becomes critical. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are reportedly exploring public offerings. If SpaceX absorbs a huge chunk of available capital in a blockbuster June IPO, the window for AI companies could narrow. Timing a public debut in SpaceX’s shadow would be a tough sell.
- The “bet on everyone” era is ending. For years, institutional investors spread capital across every major AI player. That’s shifting toward more selective positioning, with real consequences for companies that can’t differentiate.
The private secondary market is often a leading indicator. Right now, it’s saying that Anthropic has separated from the pack in investor enthusiasm, OpenAI needs to prove its premium is justified, and a rocket company might steal the spotlight from both of them.
Full details are available in the original TechCrunch AI report.